Verlander vs. Dickey - "It's a Pitch-off!"

The FU Farrell e-mail box (fufarrell11@gmail.com) has been overwhelmed with rebuttals and counter-opinions of disgruntled Detroit Tigers fans ever since I suggested a few days ago that the Toronto Blue Jays have the best rotation in the Major Leagues.  Was I too hasty with this proclamation?  Am I still "charged up" by the moves made by Double A?  (That was a battery pun by the way.)  Let us delve deeper into this firestorm of controversy that I have created by looking at the individual matchups, 1 through 5, on each respective squadron.

Today, I will start with the matchup of fireballer Justin "Credible" Verlander versus "The Dickman" R.A. Dickey.  This analysis will be utilizing genuine, quantifiable data from the past three seasons in the form of Innings Pitched (IP), Earned Run Average (ERA), Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per 9 innings (SO/9), and Walks per 9 innings (BB/9).  But first, a little bit about the pitchers.

Justin "Don't call me Zoolander" Verlander is a 6'5" right hander and is 30 years old.  In his pitching arsenal he possesses (in order of usage) a 95 mph four seam fastball, an 87 mph changeup, an 80 mph curveball, an 86 mph slider, and a 95 mph two seam fastball.  Verlander loves to use the four seam fastball in all situations, but when ahead on a hitter he often elects to go with a curveball or slider as a put away pitch.  In 2011, Verlander had his "Ricky Romero career season" - though on a much more impressive scale - throwing a whopping 251 innings, with a sparkling 2.40 ERA, a beyond comprehension 0.92 WHIP, and an other-worldly 250 strikeouts, culminating in a mindblowing 24 wins and the American League Cy Young award.

Robert Allen Dickey is a 6'2" right hander and is 38 years old.  Dickey is of course known for his world-famous knuckleball.  In addition to the rarity of the pitch - Dickey is currently the only active major leaguer to throw it - he also throws it harder than other knuckleballers of memory.  In addition to his 77 mph knuckler, Dickey also sprinkles in the occasional fastball around 83 mph and the rare changeup at 75 mph.  Last season, Dickey had his "Romero year", racking up 20 wins with the New York Mets on the shoulders of an impressive 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an enormous 230 punchouts - winning him the National League Cy Young award.  These two pitchers are clearly not chopped liver.

Year	Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9
2012	Dickey	233.2	2.73	1.05	8.9	2.1
2011	Dickey	208.2	3.28	1.23	5.8	2.3
2010	Dickey	174.1	2.84	1.19	5.4	2.2
Avg	Dickey	214	2.92	1.13	7.3	2.2
Proj 2013	Dickey	203	3.06	1.19	8.2	2.2
Year	Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9
2012	Verlander	238.1	2.64	1.06	9.0	2.3
2011	Verlander	251	2.40	0.92	9.0	2.0
2010	Verlander	224.1	3.37	1.16	8.8	2.8
Avg	Verlander	239.1	2.71	1.04	9.0	2.3
Proj 2013	Verlander	232.1	2.78	1.06	8.9	2.3

In the above tables, statistics of both pitchers are displayed from the 2010-2012 seasons.  A weighted average has been created which puts 50% of the emphasis on the past season, compared to 30% from 2011 and 20% from 2010.  Finally, included is a FU Farrell projection for the upcoming 2013 using a blend of secret proprietary factors. 

Looking at the numbers, it is truly remarkable just how similar Dickey and Verlander's numbers were in 2012.  If the two pitchers were not completely different in every way - from their pitching repetoires and styles to the leagues they pitched in and their ages - looking at the statistics you would think they were the same man.

Crunching the numbers, Verlander is projected to be better this season in every category except walks.  He has pitched on the same team his entire major league career, so consistently, and so well.  At only 30 years of age, I do not expect his numbers to decline much.  Dickey, on the other hand, saw his numbers improve across the board last season.  At age 38, I feel another improvement is unrealistic, and I expect a small regression in all categories.  Pitching in the Skydome should help a knuckleball pitcher, as the rotationless orb that is a baseball will not be subjected to the elements which can diminish the pitch's effectiveness and accuracy.  Moving to the American League and not getting to face the pitcher every time through the batting order will not help matters, though.  So chalk this one up to the Tigers who now hold a 1-0 lead in this best of five series.  Tomorrow we will analyse the matchup between the two right handed flamethrowers, Max Scherzer of the Tigers and Brandon Morrow of the Blue Jays.

Jays Trail Yankees after Top of 1st

What is with the Blue Jays?  After half an inning in the books in Dunedin, the Jays are already trailing the Yankees 1-0.  The worst part is from what I hear the Jays had a really poor batting practice, so don't expect to see a lot of runs from them this afternoon, particularly against the flamethrower Jose Ramirez.  I don't see any positives in sight for this team.  Shea Hillenbrand could have predicted this.  I'm not going to bother watching the rest of this game.

Update: The Blue Jays went on to score nine runs in the bottom of the first inning and another six in the second before cruising to a 17-5 win. 

J.A. Over Ricky in the Starting Rotation? Maybe it Should Happ-en

In my first endeavour on FU Farrell, I am going to rebut my colleague's stance on Ricky Romero with the case of relatively new Blue Jay J.A. Happ, who has seemingly been disgruntled since coming to the team in July 2012.  Typically a starter, Happ immediately found himself in the Toronto bullpen, even with the Blue Jays' starting rotation decimated with injuries to Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison.  He eventually got his opportunity when Brett Cecil was demoted to the bullpen and while he did not overwhelm by any means, he showed enough to suggest he would be a viable 4th or 5th starter for the team in 2013.

Fast forward to the offseason -- what looked like a guaranteed spot in the rotation all of a sudden became an all-but-guaranteed trip to Buffalo following the acquisitions of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle.  When last year's opening day starter, Romero, all of a sudden is pencilled in as the 5th starter, the writing is on the wall.

Yet here we are, well into Spring Training and 19 days before the start of the season, and there are more than just whispers floating around regarding Happ's displeasure.  On one hand, you can sympathize -- a starter by trade who has shown his worth at the major league level is destined to start the season in the minors.  Long relief, a role filled in the last few years by departed Carlos Villanueva, is an option, but the team seems adamant Happ stays stretched out in case an inevitable injury or hiccup occurs.  On the other, he's good enough to know that he will get an opportunity at some point this season, and with the team a perceived playoff/World Series contender, why not suck it up?  Is personal gratification better than team gratification?

That said, it brings me to my point -- why is Happ not being considered for the 5th starter's role?  I understand Spring Training is meant to work out the kinks, but Romero's struggles of last season are creeping over.  Add to the fact he hid an elbow issue last season, and revealed he has knee issues which will constantly nag him, and suddenly he goes from being a centrepiece of the starting rotation to damaged goods whose time may in fact be running thin.

Blue Jays management is loyal.  One of the longest tenured Blue Jays certainly deserves a bit of rope.  But I hope loyalty can be set aside when it comes to making the right decisions for the ball club.  After the moves made, all the money spent, and the heaping expectations placed on the team as a result, the well being of the team should not come at the expense of loyalty.  Forget who he is and has been within the organization.  Forget his salary.  Forget his tenure.  Even forget he is a fan favourite.  All that matters now is wins.  Can it be afforded to let Ricky try and work through things over a few starts, only to see him go 0 and 4 in April?  With a division championship the goal, and wins a premium in the super tight A.L. East, can games like that be pissed away?  No.

So if Ricky continues to struggle this preseason, and J.A. is at least showing he can hold his own, I for one would like to see the two flipping spots in the rotation Happ-en.  And the sooner, the better.

The Trouble with Ricky

In 2005, then Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi drafed Ricky Romero with the 6th overall selection.  Following the draft, Ricciardi received relentless criticism for not selecting Troy Tulowitzki (taken 7th).  It was a risky pick by Ricciardi, since Tulowitzi went into the draft with a lot of fanfare as a 5-tool offensive stud at the shortstop position.  The criticism was amplified when Tulowitzki hit 24 home runs in his first full season and finished 2nd in rookie of the year balloting.  Romero, on the other hand, took some time to develop in the minors, putting up unspectacular stats until his first big league season in 2009.  To a smart alec sports writer with access to a time machine, the Romero draft pick would have been compared to the Phil Kessel trade for the first few seasons.

Between 2009 to 2011, Romero found himself, putting up consistent, steady improvements year after year.  In 2011, Romero had his career season, racking up 15 wins on a bad Blue Jays team, with a sparkling 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 178 punchouts.  At the end of 2011, with Romero still a young man and seemingly the ace of the franchise for years to come, Jays fans could ignore the fact that Tulowitzki had hit .302 that season with 30 jacks and 105 ribbies.  After all, Romero appeared to be one of the top pitchers in all of baseball.  It was even suggested by some that the Jays had made the correct decision in drafting Romero over Tulowitzki based on his steady year to year improvement, culminating in his 2011 dream season.

Flash forward a single year to 2012 - Romero was the Blue Jays undisputed ace for the first time, and expectations had never been higher.  Despite a 5-1 record to start the season, Romero never really was sharp, and ended up having a disastrous season, ending up with a brutal 5.77 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 14 losses.  Romero was consistently awful all season long, and did not seem at all like the dominant pitcher of the previous few seasons.  Romero's 2012 featured fewer strikeouts and many more walks than any other season, despite significantly fewer innings pitched.  The thing that struck me was that after every loss, Romero just seemed so sad, depressed, and had the tendency to mope and feel sorry for himself.  It seemed as if he had lost all confidence, and left fans very confused about what was wrong with the lefty.

In the offseason, Romero had arthroscopic surgery on his throwing elbow, and admitted that he had been pitching through pain throughout 2012.  To me, this was a relief - something finally could explain why Romero's 2012 had been so poor.  With all the other big acquisitions the Blue Jays had made, Romero was slated to be the team's 5th starter.  I rushed to annoint the Jays as bar none the best pitching staff in the major leagues (I still stand by that).  In spring training 2013 so far, however, Romero has put up his worst statistics yet.  It is worth noting that he has only thrown 5.2 innings so far this pre-season over only three starts, hardly a sample size worthy of any real concern, but unfortunately the issues that hurt Romero last season have all been present this spring.  He only has two strikeouts compared to five walks and has very poor peripheral statistics.  He has looked very wild, and his release point has looked off, resulting in wild pitches.  It is very early in spring training, and we all know that these stats don't really matter, but still it would have been nice for him to go out and dominate to put fans' minds at ease.

This poor spring start, coupled with last year's nightmarish season, have fans of "Ricky-Ro" saying "Ruh-Ro".  But I say don't worry just yet.  The guy just had off season surgery and is of course going to be rusty at the very start of spring training.  As a fifth starter, Ricky Romero should be the best in the majors.  The key is his confidence.  His first game of the season is scheduled to be versus the Boston Red Sox on April 6th.  Boston has traditionally feasted off of him, and it will be very important for Romero to get off to a good start to the regular season, to put last season to rest and silence his critics.  Ricky Romero's worst enemy is himself - if he can put his self doubt and mopiness aside, he has the ability and talent to be one of the best pitchers in what is the best rotation in Major League Baseball.

Don't worry, Scooby.  Ricky-Ro should be fine in 2013.

Canada Routs Mexico in Basebrawl at WBC

Wow, that was a fun game!  The flu stricken Canadians entered this afternoon's matchup versus Mexico having been thoroughly embarrassed yesterday; losing by ten runs to Italy who was led by Chris Cooper and Brian Sweeney.  Justin Morneau politely declined to shake hands with a tv guy before the game because he didn't want to pass the flu bug on - how very "Canadian"!

The game started with Canada racking up five straight base hits to start the game, and the good guys opened up a 4-0 lead in the first inning.  The pitching which had been so bad against the Italian "Stallions" looked like it was in trouble again, as Canadian pitcher Albers couldn't seem to do anything right himself, giving up four consecutive hits in the third inning.  I got my car warmed up to drive down to Arizona to help pitch but thought better of it after Canada escaped the inning up 4-3.  It could have been much worse if not for a play at the plate where the Mexican player was gunned down from center field, and unsuccessfully railroaded the catcher Robinson, similar to Mark McGwire's unsuccessful railroading of Pat Borders during the 1992 ALCS.  The Mexican player never actually got tagged, but after the play he just went back to the dugout dejected without trying to touch the plate, while Robinson just pumped his fist and ran out to the mound without tagging the baserunner.  Fortunately the runner was called out for leaving the basebath while he was sitting in the dugout.  Hanging onto the ball after getting hit was even more impressive by Robinson considering the fact that he had just been "squared" about a minute before, taking a foul tip directly to the privates.

Some clutch hitting by Canadian heroes Justin Morneau and "Above Average" Mike Saunders had the canucks up 9-3 heading to the ninth inning.  Morneau even tweeted from the bench to "#FinishThis", during the game - how awesome is that?!  A bunt single to lead off the ninth cheesed off Luis Cruz who visually called for the baseball version of a mob hit by instructing the Mexican pitcher to bean Canadian batter Rene Tosoni.  After two pitches thrown inside to Tosoni - the second of which made it clear that he was intentionally being thrown at - the Canadian outfielder made a step towards the mound to express his discontent.  Of course, to the Mexican pitcher this step was clearly perceived as a challenge and with the respect of Luis Cruz on the line (and the pride of a nation at stake) the next pitch was thrown directly at Tosoni's back, and a bench clearing brawl ensued.  Several punches were thrown and many of the Mexican players looked furious, which I really cannot comprehend since they were the ones who started the whole situation.  One Mexican player began swinging his fists in a comical fashion (see animation below) before being slung to the ground and pummeled by one of the Canadians.  The Mexican fans also got in on the act of embarrassing themselves by throwing water bottles and baseballs at the Canadian players and coaches.  I can only hope that the Mexican pitcher and catcher got sneezed on a few times during the brawl so that they will pick up the flu as well.

The Mexican player flailed his arms similar to Bart Simpson

Said Larry Walker of Mexican pitcher Alfredo Aceves during the brawl, "I had ahold of him and I think I saw Satan in his eyes."  The game resumed and sadly we did not get to see John Axford drill anyone in the back with a 94 mph fastball - that would have been really great to see.  Canada wins in a laugher 10-3 and must face the rival Americans on Sunday in a do-or-die matchup with the winner advancing to the next round.  With the loss, Team Mexico is eliminated from the WBC.

Logo Contest!

This is your chance to become an integral part of FUFarrell.blogspot.com forever!  Submit your FU Farrell logo design to fufarrell11@gmail.com or tweet @fufarrell11.  If your logo is chosen, in addition to having your logo featured on our website, you will receive a Yunel Escobar bobblehead - the best prize ever!  Looking forward to seeing some logos!

Reasons to Not Boo John Farrell

1.  You are a relative of his, aside from his estranged step-brother Armin.

2.  You have a strange and disturbing fascination with him.

3.  You have a fetish for being used and abused.

4.  You are a Red Sox fan AND you don't mind having a tool as your manager.

5.  You live in Bizzaro World.

That is all.

Armin Tamzarian

Bizzaro Superman