Verlander vs. Dickey - "It's a Pitch-off!"

The FU Farrell e-mail box (fufarrell11@gmail.com) has been overwhelmed with rebuttals and counter-opinions of disgruntled Detroit Tigers fans ever since I suggested a few days ago that the Toronto Blue Jays have the best rotation in the Major Leagues.  Was I too hasty with this proclamation?  Am I still "charged up" by the moves made by Double A?  (That was a battery pun by the way.)  Let us delve deeper into this firestorm of controversy that I have created by looking at the individual matchups, 1 through 5, on each respective squadron.

Today, I will start with the matchup of fireballer Justin "Credible" Verlander versus "The Dickman" R.A. Dickey.  This analysis will be utilizing genuine, quantifiable data from the past three seasons in the form of Innings Pitched (IP), Earned Run Average (ERA), Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per 9 innings (SO/9), and Walks per 9 innings (BB/9).  But first, a little bit about the pitchers.

Justin "Don't call me Zoolander" Verlander is a 6'5" right hander and is 30 years old.  In his pitching arsenal he possesses (in order of usage) a 95 mph four seam fastball, an 87 mph changeup, an 80 mph curveball, an 86 mph slider, and a 95 mph two seam fastball.  Verlander loves to use the four seam fastball in all situations, but when ahead on a hitter he often elects to go with a curveball or slider as a put away pitch.  In 2011, Verlander had his "Ricky Romero career season" - though on a much more impressive scale - throwing a whopping 251 innings, with a sparkling 2.40 ERA, a beyond comprehension 0.92 WHIP, and an other-worldly 250 strikeouts, culminating in a mindblowing 24 wins and the American League Cy Young award.

Robert Allen Dickey is a 6'2" right hander and is 38 years old.  Dickey is of course known for his world-famous knuckleball.  In addition to the rarity of the pitch - Dickey is currently the only active major leaguer to throw it - he also throws it harder than other knuckleballers of memory.  In addition to his 77 mph knuckler, Dickey also sprinkles in the occasional fastball around 83 mph and the rare changeup at 75 mph.  Last season, Dickey had his "Romero year", racking up 20 wins with the New York Mets on the shoulders of an impressive 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an enormous 230 punchouts - winning him the National League Cy Young award.  These two pitchers are clearly not chopped liver.

Year	Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9
2012	Dickey	233.2	2.73	1.05	8.9	2.1
2011	Dickey	208.2	3.28	1.23	5.8	2.3
2010	Dickey	174.1	2.84	1.19	5.4	2.2
Avg	Dickey	214	2.92	1.13	7.3	2.2
Proj 2013	Dickey	203	3.06	1.19	8.2	2.2
Year	Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9
2012	Verlander	238.1	2.64	1.06	9.0	2.3
2011	Verlander	251	2.40	0.92	9.0	2.0
2010	Verlander	224.1	3.37	1.16	8.8	2.8
Avg	Verlander	239.1	2.71	1.04	9.0	2.3
Proj 2013	Verlander	232.1	2.78	1.06	8.9	2.3

In the above tables, statistics of both pitchers are displayed from the 2010-2012 seasons.  A weighted average has been created which puts 50% of the emphasis on the past season, compared to 30% from 2011 and 20% from 2010.  Finally, included is a FU Farrell projection for the upcoming 2013 using a blend of secret proprietary factors. 

Looking at the numbers, it is truly remarkable just how similar Dickey and Verlander's numbers were in 2012.  If the two pitchers were not completely different in every way - from their pitching repetoires and styles to the leagues they pitched in and their ages - looking at the statistics you would think they were the same man.

Crunching the numbers, Verlander is projected to be better this season in every category except walks.  He has pitched on the same team his entire major league career, so consistently, and so well.  At only 30 years of age, I do not expect his numbers to decline much.  Dickey, on the other hand, saw his numbers improve across the board last season.  At age 38, I feel another improvement is unrealistic, and I expect a small regression in all categories.  Pitching in the Skydome should help a knuckleball pitcher, as the rotationless orb that is a baseball will not be subjected to the elements which can diminish the pitch's effectiveness and accuracy.  Moving to the American League and not getting to face the pitcher every time through the batting order will not help matters, though.  So chalk this one up to the Tigers who now hold a 1-0 lead in this best of five series.  Tomorrow we will analyse the matchup between the two right handed flamethrowers, Max Scherzer of the Tigers and Brandon Morrow of the Blue Jays.

Jays Trail Yankees after Top of 1st

What is with the Blue Jays?  After half an inning in the books in Dunedin, the Jays are already trailing the Yankees 1-0.  The worst part is from what I hear the Jays had a really poor batting practice, so don't expect to see a lot of runs from them this afternoon, particularly against the flamethrower Jose Ramirez.  I don't see any positives in sight for this team.  Shea Hillenbrand could have predicted this.  I'm not going to bother watching the rest of this game.

Update: The Blue Jays went on to score nine runs in the bottom of the first inning and another six in the second before cruising to a 17-5 win. 

J.A. Over Ricky in the Starting Rotation? Maybe it Should Happ-en

In my first endeavour on FU Farrell, I am going to rebut my colleague's stance on Ricky Romero with the case of relatively new Blue Jay J.A. Happ, who has seemingly been disgruntled since coming to the team in July 2012.  Typically a starter, Happ immediately found himself in the Toronto bullpen, even with the Blue Jays' starting rotation decimated with injuries to Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison.  He eventually got his opportunity when Brett Cecil was demoted to the bullpen and while he did not overwhelm by any means, he showed enough to suggest he would be a viable 4th or 5th starter for the team in 2013.

Fast forward to the offseason -- what looked like a guaranteed spot in the rotation all of a sudden became an all-but-guaranteed trip to Buffalo following the acquisitions of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle.  When last year's opening day starter, Romero, all of a sudden is pencilled in as the 5th starter, the writing is on the wall.

Yet here we are, well into Spring Training and 19 days before the start of the season, and there are more than just whispers floating around regarding Happ's displeasure.  On one hand, you can sympathize -- a starter by trade who has shown his worth at the major league level is destined to start the season in the minors.  Long relief, a role filled in the last few years by departed Carlos Villanueva, is an option, but the team seems adamant Happ stays stretched out in case an inevitable injury or hiccup occurs.  On the other, he's good enough to know that he will get an opportunity at some point this season, and with the team a perceived playoff/World Series contender, why not suck it up?  Is personal gratification better than team gratification?

That said, it brings me to my point -- why is Happ not being considered for the 5th starter's role?  I understand Spring Training is meant to work out the kinks, but Romero's struggles of last season are creeping over.  Add to the fact he hid an elbow issue last season, and revealed he has knee issues which will constantly nag him, and suddenly he goes from being a centrepiece of the starting rotation to damaged goods whose time may in fact be running thin.

Blue Jays management is loyal.  One of the longest tenured Blue Jays certainly deserves a bit of rope.  But I hope loyalty can be set aside when it comes to making the right decisions for the ball club.  After the moves made, all the money spent, and the heaping expectations placed on the team as a result, the well being of the team should not come at the expense of loyalty.  Forget who he is and has been within the organization.  Forget his salary.  Forget his tenure.  Even forget he is a fan favourite.  All that matters now is wins.  Can it be afforded to let Ricky try and work through things over a few starts, only to see him go 0 and 4 in April?  With a division championship the goal, and wins a premium in the super tight A.L. East, can games like that be pissed away?  No.

So if Ricky continues to struggle this preseason, and J.A. is at least showing he can hold his own, I for one would like to see the two flipping spots in the rotation Happ-en.  And the sooner, the better.

The Trouble with Ricky

In 2005, then Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi drafed Ricky Romero with the 6th overall selection.  Following the draft, Ricciardi received relentless criticism for not selecting Troy Tulowitzki (taken 7th).  It was a risky pick by Ricciardi, since Tulowitzi went into the draft with a lot of fanfare as a 5-tool offensive stud at the shortstop position.  The criticism was amplified when Tulowitzki hit 24 home runs in his first full season and finished 2nd in rookie of the year balloting.  Romero, on the other hand, took some time to develop in the minors, putting up unspectacular stats until his first big league season in 2009.  To a smart alec sports writer with access to a time machine, the Romero draft pick would have been compared to the Phil Kessel trade for the first few seasons.

Between 2009 to 2011, Romero found himself, putting up consistent, steady improvements year after year.  In 2011, Romero had his career season, racking up 15 wins on a bad Blue Jays team, with a sparkling 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 178 punchouts.  At the end of 2011, with Romero still a young man and seemingly the ace of the franchise for years to come, Jays fans could ignore the fact that Tulowitzki had hit .302 that season with 30 jacks and 105 ribbies.  After all, Romero appeared to be one of the top pitchers in all of baseball.  It was even suggested by some that the Jays had made the correct decision in drafting Romero over Tulowitzki based on his steady year to year improvement, culminating in his 2011 dream season.

Flash forward a single year to 2012 - Romero was the Blue Jays undisputed ace for the first time, and expectations had never been higher.  Despite a 5-1 record to start the season, Romero never really was sharp, and ended up having a disastrous season, ending up with a brutal 5.77 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 14 losses.  Romero was consistently awful all season long, and did not seem at all like the dominant pitcher of the previous few seasons.  Romero's 2012 featured fewer strikeouts and many more walks than any other season, despite significantly fewer innings pitched.  The thing that struck me was that after every loss, Romero just seemed so sad, depressed, and had the tendency to mope and feel sorry for himself.  It seemed as if he had lost all confidence, and left fans very confused about what was wrong with the lefty.

In the offseason, Romero had arthroscopic surgery on his throwing elbow, and admitted that he had been pitching through pain throughout 2012.  To me, this was a relief - something finally could explain why Romero's 2012 had been so poor.  With all the other big acquisitions the Blue Jays had made, Romero was slated to be the team's 5th starter.  I rushed to annoint the Jays as bar none the best pitching staff in the major leagues (I still stand by that).  In spring training 2013 so far, however, Romero has put up his worst statistics yet.  It is worth noting that he has only thrown 5.2 innings so far this pre-season over only three starts, hardly a sample size worthy of any real concern, but unfortunately the issues that hurt Romero last season have all been present this spring.  He only has two strikeouts compared to five walks and has very poor peripheral statistics.  He has looked very wild, and his release point has looked off, resulting in wild pitches.  It is very early in spring training, and we all know that these stats don't really matter, but still it would have been nice for him to go out and dominate to put fans' minds at ease.

This poor spring start, coupled with last year's nightmarish season, have fans of "Ricky-Ro" saying "Ruh-Ro".  But I say don't worry just yet.  The guy just had off season surgery and is of course going to be rusty at the very start of spring training.  As a fifth starter, Ricky Romero should be the best in the majors.  The key is his confidence.  His first game of the season is scheduled to be versus the Boston Red Sox on April 6th.  Boston has traditionally feasted off of him, and it will be very important for Romero to get off to a good start to the regular season, to put last season to rest and silence his critics.  Ricky Romero's worst enemy is himself - if he can put his self doubt and mopiness aside, he has the ability and talent to be one of the best pitchers in what is the best rotation in Major League Baseball.

Don't worry, Scooby.  Ricky-Ro should be fine in 2013.

Canada Routs Mexico in Basebrawl at WBC

Wow, that was a fun game!  The flu stricken Canadians entered this afternoon's matchup versus Mexico having been thoroughly embarrassed yesterday; losing by ten runs to Italy who was led by Chris Cooper and Brian Sweeney.  Justin Morneau politely declined to shake hands with a tv guy before the game because he didn't want to pass the flu bug on - how very "Canadian"!

The game started with Canada racking up five straight base hits to start the game, and the good guys opened up a 4-0 lead in the first inning.  The pitching which had been so bad against the Italian "Stallions" looked like it was in trouble again, as Canadian pitcher Albers couldn't seem to do anything right himself, giving up four consecutive hits in the third inning.  I got my car warmed up to drive down to Arizona to help pitch but thought better of it after Canada escaped the inning up 4-3.  It could have been much worse if not for a play at the plate where the Mexican player was gunned down from center field, and unsuccessfully railroaded the catcher Robinson, similar to Mark McGwire's unsuccessful railroading of Pat Borders during the 1992 ALCS.  The Mexican player never actually got tagged, but after the play he just went back to the dugout dejected without trying to touch the plate, while Robinson just pumped his fist and ran out to the mound without tagging the baserunner.  Fortunately the runner was called out for leaving the basebath while he was sitting in the dugout.  Hanging onto the ball after getting hit was even more impressive by Robinson considering the fact that he had just been "squared" about a minute before, taking a foul tip directly to the privates.

Some clutch hitting by Canadian heroes Justin Morneau and "Above Average" Mike Saunders had the canucks up 9-3 heading to the ninth inning.  Morneau even tweeted from the bench to "#FinishThis", during the game - how awesome is that?!  A bunt single to lead off the ninth cheesed off Luis Cruz who visually called for the baseball version of a mob hit by instructing the Mexican pitcher to bean Canadian batter Rene Tosoni.  After two pitches thrown inside to Tosoni - the second of which made it clear that he was intentionally being thrown at - the Canadian outfielder made a step towards the mound to express his discontent.  Of course, to the Mexican pitcher this step was clearly perceived as a challenge and with the respect of Luis Cruz on the line (and the pride of a nation at stake) the next pitch was thrown directly at Tosoni's back, and a bench clearing brawl ensued.  Several punches were thrown and many of the Mexican players looked furious, which I really cannot comprehend since they were the ones who started the whole situation.  One Mexican player began swinging his fists in a comical fashion (see animation below) before being slung to the ground and pummeled by one of the Canadians.  The Mexican fans also got in on the act of embarrassing themselves by throwing water bottles and baseballs at the Canadian players and coaches.  I can only hope that the Mexican pitcher and catcher got sneezed on a few times during the brawl so that they will pick up the flu as well.

The Mexican player flailed his arms similar to Bart Simpson

Said Larry Walker of Mexican pitcher Alfredo Aceves during the brawl, "I had ahold of him and I think I saw Satan in his eyes."  The game resumed and sadly we did not get to see John Axford drill anyone in the back with a 94 mph fastball - that would have been really great to see.  Canada wins in a laugher 10-3 and must face the rival Americans on Sunday in a do-or-die matchup with the winner advancing to the next round.  With the loss, Team Mexico is eliminated from the WBC.

Logo Contest!

This is your chance to become an integral part of FUFarrell.blogspot.com forever!  Submit your FU Farrell logo design to fufarrell11@gmail.com or tweet @fufarrell11.  If your logo is chosen, in addition to having your logo featured on our website, you will receive a Yunel Escobar bobblehead - the best prize ever!  Looking forward to seeing some logos!

Reasons to Not Boo John Farrell

1.  You are a relative of his, aside from his estranged step-brother Armin.

2.  You have a strange and disturbing fascination with him.

3.  You have a fetish for being used and abused.

4.  You are a Red Sox fan AND you don't mind having a tool as your manager.

5.  You live in Bizzaro World.

That is all.

Armin Tamzarian

Bizzaro Superman

Jays or Rays?

Listening to the Fan 590 today on the way home from work, Bob McCowan noted that none of the American beat writers following spring training were predicting the Blue Jays to win the division.  Without putting the cart too far ahead of the horse, aren't the Jays the "Vegas favourite" to win the World Series?  It seems strange that according to Bobcat, most of the writers were predicting the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL East.

To me, this is assinine.  Yea, the Rays have a good pitching staff.  Yea, the pitching staff has been carrying them for the past several seasons.  But look at the pitchers the Blue Jays have!  Let's break this down.

1. David Price vs. R.A. Dickey:  This one is almost a toss up.  Both had 20 win seasons and won the Cy Young in their respective leagues in 2012.  Dickey had more strikeouts and a slightly better WHIP.  Price had a better ERA and slightly better WAR rating.  Dickey is beloved by the media in Toronto, and Price is respected by the "Twitterverse" for his candid posts and frequent bemoanings about some restaurant in Tampa that doesn't serve Citrus Chicken anymore.  I told him to just squeeze some lemons over a bucket of KFC but he never responded.  In spite of this slap in the face, due to age and track record, I give Price the slight advantage over Dickey.  Maybe those beat writers are on to something after all!

2. Jeremy Hellickson vs Brandon Morrow:  This one I have to give to the Jays.  Again, two great pitchers, though all the Cy Youngs were hogged by the guys above.  Morrow had a better ERA and WHIP in 2012, and both finished with 10 wins though Morrow threw roughly 50 innings less due to injury.  Morrow also averaged more punchouts per 9 innings. 

3. Matt Moore vs. Mark Buehrle:  Matt Moore was a rookie in 2012, while Buehrle is a grizzled veteran.  Almost all the stats point to Buehrle except for strikeouts - Moore with the excellent ratio of over one K per inning pitched while that has never been Buehrle's game.  Buehrle had more wins, better ERA, better WHIP, better WAR.  Though Moore should improve on his season, I think Buehrle will still be the better pitcher in 2013.  2-1 for the good guys so far.

4. Alex Cobb vs. Josh Johnson:  Again, in 2012 Johnson dominated in all the categories, except was edged slightly in WHIP.  Additionally, this could be considered an off season for Johnson, who definitely has higher expectations going into 2013, as supported by his resume.  The one risk with Johnson is injury. 

5. Jeff Niemann vs. Ricky Romero:  This is a really tough one to call.  Niemann is a big strong guy (though not really a huge stikeout guy) but has battled a lot of injuries over the past two seasons.  When he was healthy last season he put together the best statistics of his career, beating Romero across the board.  Romero on the other hand had a nightmare of a season, after several years being the reliable, dominant Jays ace.  Had this blog been written prior to last spring, Romero would have won this matchup hands down.  After the ugliness we saw from him last season, though he did have an injured elbow he was pitching through, it's hard to trust Ricky at this point.  I still have to give him the edge due to track record, on the belief that last season was due to an injury and was an abberation.

So we finish the starting pitchers 4-1 in favour of the good guys.  In my mind the Jays have the best rotation in all the majors, though I know a lot of people say Detroit deserves that honour.  This blog is pretty long already, but suffice it to say looking at the two offenses there is no comparison - Tampa Bay can't hit their way out of a paper bag.  How many seasons now have they won all the one-run games, and had everything work out in their favour with walk off wins seemingly every night?  I can't imagine that luck lasting another season with this crappy offense.  They do have Yunel Escobar now at shortstop.  Oh yea, the Jays have Jose Reyes.  The Rays also lost BJ Upton who was a 5-tool talent for the team despite his penchant for a painfully low batting average.  The Jays lost Kelly Johnson (good).  There really is no comparing these two offenses.

The Tampa bullpen doesn't impress me, and I give that advantage to Toronto as well.  How is it that at age 35, in 2012 Fernando Rodney had his first season with ERA below 4.24 since 2006 - his ERA plummeted down to 0.60!!!!  Do you think that statistic is repeatable with his age and track record?

Anyway, the Jays win this head to head match up in every category except possibly David Price and Evan "don't call me Eva" Longoria, if he can stay healthy for a change.  In conclusion, the Jays will have the better season of the two teams, and all those sports writers who picked the Rays over the Jays are either anti-Canadian, have little or no baseball knowledge, or just want to go against the grain after all the off season hype surrounding the Jays.  These are probably also the same self-important snobs who are keeping certain deserving players out of the Hall of Fame; but that is a topic for another day!

Season outlook - Right Field

For the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, of all the players jockeying for a starting job in spring training, the most captivating story is who will win the starting right fielder's position.  Candidates for the starting job in right field are Anthony Gose, two time MLB home run champion Jose Bautista, and the dark horse Moises Sierra. 

On pure "5-tool talent" alone, one would have to give the job to Gose outright.  This guy has speed to burn!  So far through 6 spring training games, Gose is sporting an impressive .375 batting average against some of the best arms the Grapefruit league has to offer, with a lofty OPS of .944.  Throw in a triple and two stolen bases and one might consider the job Gose's to lose.

Jose Bautista is the incumbent as last season's starting right fielder, but with John Gibbons at the helm, every job is available, regardless of career numbers or salary, or number of 50+ home run or 120+ RBI seasons.  This spring Bautista is only batting a pitiful .125, tied with third string catcher Mike Nikeas so obiously things aren't looking good for him to win the starting right field job.

Dark horse Moises Sierra is another feel-good story for the Jays this spring.  Unlike Bautista, he and Gose have overachieved; with the former hitting .333.  If you extrapolate this batting average over a 162 game season you get the exact same .333 which would have Sierra and Gose battling it out Olerud and Molitor style for the batting title. 

While they are not as intimidating a presence at the plate as Bautista, another advantage Gose and Sierra have is their marketing appeal.  How irrestistable is the nickname "Canada Gose" to the brass at Rogers who will surely be whispering in skipper John Gibbons' ear.  Moises Sierra is just such an exotic name that will surely play well in such a multicultural city as Toronto.

Unfortunately though for Gose and Sierra, the reality is that even though they are having the much better spring, Jose Bautista will probably get the job anyway.  Guys who can hit 50+ home runs, drive in 120+ RBI's, bat around .300, and have the strongest throwing arm in the league just don't come along every day.  I guess I can't argue with the decision to give Bautista the starting job in 2013.  Just remember, Jose - Gibby, and I, will have you on a short leash.

Welcome to FU Farrell!

When John Farrell left the club this past October, the Blue Jays were a laughing stock, apparently having hit rock bottom.  Farrell jovially thanked the organization for allowing him to gain managerial experience at the major league level, basically admitting that he had accepted the Blue Jays job with his end game to leave for the rival Red Sox as soon as the opportunity presented itself.  The only thing the Jays lost in the mean time was a couple seasons to mediocrity and a boat load of young pitching talent due to elbow and shoulder injuries sustained during Farrell's watch.

Initially, my reaction was anger and frustration when Farrell was dealt to the Red Sox for Mike Aviles.  The Blue Jays, it appeared, were "giving in", letting their Benedict Arnold get his wish.  I wanted the Jays to wait for the Sox to hire a replacement manager to the much maligned Bobby Valentine, then fire Farrell's butt for his disloyalty.  That would have sent a strong message to the league that the team would not allow itself to get pushed around and taken advantage of.  Instead, it appeared as if the Jays folded like a cheap suit, giving up the manager who knew the inner workings of the team to a key division rival, while at the same time rewarding Farrell's betrayal by giving him exactly what he wanted.

In the public's eye, the team had hit rock bottom and had allowed itself to be walked all over like a beat up linoleum floor.  The team needed to do something to repair its image.  The stage was set for Alex Anthopoulous to work his magic. 

On a fateful November evening, news broke of the stunning deal between the Blue Jays and the Miami Marlins, which saw Toronto acquire Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Emilio Bonifacio in one massive blockbuster.  In this one shocking turn of events, my belief in the team transformed from an all-time low, to being restored to levels unrivaled since the 92/93 "Glory years".  We were back, baby.  For the first time in a long time, the Jays were contenders.

I wonder if Farrell had not embarrassed the franchise, and caused mass disillusion among fans to the point where Rogers had to do something major to turn the tides of public opinion back in their favour, if the vaults ever would have been opened to allow "Double A" to make such a deal.  I know for me and those I am close to, this trade was exactly what the doctor ordered to wash away the discontent from the Farrell situation and renew fan excitement to this extreme level.  Would the trade have been possible had Farrell not forced his way out?  Perhaps.  But I do not believe it would have happened.  So, John, this is leading me to the most unlikely three words I thought I would ever hear myself say, "Thank you, Farrell!"