Verlander vs. Dickey - "It's a Pitch-off!"

The FU Farrell e-mail box (fufarrell11@gmail.com) has been overwhelmed with rebuttals and counter-opinions of disgruntled Detroit Tigers fans ever since I suggested a few days ago that the Toronto Blue Jays have the best rotation in the Major Leagues.  Was I too hasty with this proclamation?  Am I still "charged up" by the moves made by Double A?  (That was a battery pun by the way.)  Let us delve deeper into this firestorm of controversy that I have created by looking at the individual matchups, 1 through 5, on each respective squadron.

Today, I will start with the matchup of fireballer Justin "Credible" Verlander versus "The Dickman" R.A. Dickey.  This analysis will be utilizing genuine, quantifiable data from the past three seasons in the form of Innings Pitched (IP), Earned Run Average (ERA), Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per 9 innings (SO/9), and Walks per 9 innings (BB/9).  But first, a little bit about the pitchers.

Justin "Don't call me Zoolander" Verlander is a 6'5" right hander and is 30 years old.  In his pitching arsenal he possesses (in order of usage) a 95 mph four seam fastball, an 87 mph changeup, an 80 mph curveball, an 86 mph slider, and a 95 mph two seam fastball.  Verlander loves to use the four seam fastball in all situations, but when ahead on a hitter he often elects to go with a curveball or slider as a put away pitch.  In 2011, Verlander had his "Ricky Romero career season" - though on a much more impressive scale - throwing a whopping 251 innings, with a sparkling 2.40 ERA, a beyond comprehension 0.92 WHIP, and an other-worldly 250 strikeouts, culminating in a mindblowing 24 wins and the American League Cy Young award.

Robert Allen Dickey is a 6'2" right hander and is 38 years old.  Dickey is of course known for his world-famous knuckleball.  In addition to the rarity of the pitch - Dickey is currently the only active major leaguer to throw it - he also throws it harder than other knuckleballers of memory.  In addition to his 77 mph knuckler, Dickey also sprinkles in the occasional fastball around 83 mph and the rare changeup at 75 mph.  Last season, Dickey had his "Romero year", racking up 20 wins with the New York Mets on the shoulders of an impressive 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an enormous 230 punchouts - winning him the National League Cy Young award.  These two pitchers are clearly not chopped liver.

Year	Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9
2012	Dickey	233.2	2.73	1.05	8.9	2.1
2011	Dickey	208.2	3.28	1.23	5.8	2.3
2010	Dickey	174.1	2.84	1.19	5.4	2.2
Avg	Dickey	214	2.92	1.13	7.3	2.2
Proj 2013	Dickey	203	3.06	1.19	8.2	2.2
Year	Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9
2012	Verlander	238.1	2.64	1.06	9.0	2.3
2011	Verlander	251	2.40	0.92	9.0	2.0
2010	Verlander	224.1	3.37	1.16	8.8	2.8
Avg	Verlander	239.1	2.71	1.04	9.0	2.3
Proj 2013	Verlander	232.1	2.78	1.06	8.9	2.3

In the above tables, statistics of both pitchers are displayed from the 2010-2012 seasons.  A weighted average has been created which puts 50% of the emphasis on the past season, compared to 30% from 2011 and 20% from 2010.  Finally, included is a FU Farrell projection for the upcoming 2013 using a blend of secret proprietary factors. 

Looking at the numbers, it is truly remarkable just how similar Dickey and Verlander's numbers were in 2012.  If the two pitchers were not completely different in every way - from their pitching repetoires and styles to the leagues they pitched in and their ages - looking at the statistics you would think they were the same man.

Crunching the numbers, Verlander is projected to be better this season in every category except walks.  He has pitched on the same team his entire major league career, so consistently, and so well.  At only 30 years of age, I do not expect his numbers to decline much.  Dickey, on the other hand, saw his numbers improve across the board last season.  At age 38, I feel another improvement is unrealistic, and I expect a small regression in all categories.  Pitching in the Skydome should help a knuckleball pitcher, as the rotationless orb that is a baseball will not be subjected to the elements which can diminish the pitch's effectiveness and accuracy.  Moving to the American League and not getting to face the pitcher every time through the batting order will not help matters, though.  So chalk this one up to the Tigers who now hold a 1-0 lead in this best of five series.  Tomorrow we will analyse the matchup between the two right handed flamethrowers, Max Scherzer of the Tigers and Brandon Morrow of the Blue Jays.