Listening to the Fan 590 today on the way home from work, Bob McCowan noted that none of the American beat writers following spring training were predicting the Blue Jays to win the division. Without putting the cart too far ahead of the horse, aren't the Jays the "Vegas favourite" to win the World Series? It seems strange that according to Bobcat, most of the writers were predicting the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL East.
To me, this is assinine. Yea, the Rays have a good pitching staff. Yea, the pitching staff has been carrying them for the past several seasons. But look at the pitchers the Blue Jays have! Let's break this down.
1. David Price vs. R.A. Dickey: This one is almost a toss up. Both had 20 win seasons and won the Cy Young in their respective leagues in 2012. Dickey had more strikeouts and a slightly better WHIP. Price had a better ERA and slightly better WAR rating. Dickey is beloved by the media in Toronto, and Price is respected by the "Twitterverse" for his candid posts and frequent bemoanings about some restaurant in Tampa that doesn't serve Citrus Chicken anymore. I told him to just squeeze some lemons over a bucket of KFC but he never responded. In spite of this slap in the face, due to age and track record, I give Price the slight advantage over Dickey. Maybe those beat writers are on to something after all!
2. Jeremy Hellickson vs Brandon Morrow: This one I have to give to the Jays. Again, two great pitchers, though all the Cy Youngs were hogged by the guys above. Morrow had a better ERA and WHIP in 2012, and both finished with 10 wins though Morrow threw roughly 50 innings less due to injury. Morrow also averaged more punchouts per 9 innings.
3. Matt Moore vs. Mark Buehrle: Matt Moore was a rookie in 2012, while Buehrle is a grizzled veteran. Almost all the stats point to Buehrle except for strikeouts - Moore with the excellent ratio of over one K per inning pitched while that has never been Buehrle's game. Buehrle had more wins, better ERA, better WHIP, better WAR. Though Moore should improve on his season, I think Buehrle will still be the better pitcher in 2013. 2-1 for the good guys so far.
4. Alex Cobb vs. Josh Johnson: Again, in 2012 Johnson dominated in all the categories, except was edged slightly in WHIP. Additionally, this could be considered an off season for Johnson, who definitely has higher expectations going into 2013, as supported by his resume. The one risk with Johnson is injury.
5. Jeff Niemann vs. Ricky Romero: This is a really tough one to call. Niemann is a big strong guy (though not really a huge stikeout guy) but has battled a lot of injuries over the past two seasons. When he was healthy last season he put together the best statistics of his career, beating Romero across the board. Romero on the other hand had a nightmare of a season, after several years being the reliable, dominant Jays ace. Had this blog been written prior to last spring, Romero would have won this matchup hands down. After the ugliness we saw from him last season, though he did have an injured elbow he was pitching through, it's hard to trust Ricky at this point. I still have to give him the edge due to track record, on the belief that last season was due to an injury and was an abberation.
So we finish the starting pitchers 4-1 in favour of the good guys. In my mind the Jays have the best rotation in all the majors, though I know a lot of people say Detroit deserves that honour. This blog is pretty long already, but suffice it to say looking at the two offenses there is no comparison - Tampa Bay can't hit their way out of a paper bag. How many seasons now have they won all the one-run games, and had everything work out in their favour with walk off wins seemingly every night? I can't imagine that luck lasting another season with this crappy offense. They do have Yunel Escobar now at shortstop. Oh yea, the Jays have Jose Reyes. The Rays also lost BJ Upton who was a 5-tool talent for the team despite his penchant for a painfully low batting average. The Jays lost Kelly Johnson (good). There really is no comparing these two offenses.
The Tampa bullpen doesn't impress me, and I give that advantage to Toronto as well. How is it that at age 35, in 2012 Fernando Rodney had his first season with ERA below 4.24 since 2006 - his ERA plummeted down to 0.60!!!! Do you think that statistic is repeatable with his age and track record?
Anyway, the Jays win this head to head match up in every category except possibly David Price and Evan "don't call me Eva" Longoria, if he can stay healthy for a change. In conclusion, the Jays will have the better season of the two teams, and all those sports writers who picked the Rays over the Jays are either anti-Canadian, have little or no baseball knowledge, or just want to go against the grain after all the off season hype surrounding the Jays. These are probably also the same self-important snobs who are keeping certain deserving players out of the Hall of Fame; but that is a topic for another day!
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